Colin Buchanan Expert Panel’s Budget Projections


Colin Buchanan’s Economics team undertook a survey of the great and good to see what they thought was going to be in today’s budget. The answers not surprisingly are taxes up on everything – almost.

So first question – will the basic rate of income tax rise – being optimistic here 41% of our experts said yes and 59% said no. – and the experts were right

On VAT – just 26% expect no increase, a hopeful 11% expect it to go up to 18% while 45% are forecasting a new rate of 20%. The remainder are projecting an increase to between 19 and 22%. – the experts were again on song with a new 20% rate being announced

For vehicle excise duty 69% are forecasting an increase while 31% believe the “war on motorists is over” and assume it will remain the same. That same view spills over to road user charging for HGVs and workplace parking levies with 80% and 81% respectively saying no announcements on their introduction will be made. However, on fuel duty everyone expects an increase – 41% by 1p, 38% by 2p and 22% by more than 2p a litre.  Mixed results with no increases announced and no raod user charging for HGVs or workplace parking levy

On excise duty on beer the view is also not optimistic – just 6% expecting no increase, while 25% fear a 5p increase a pint and 15% forecasting more than 5p. The remainder are expecting (or hoping) for increases between 1 and 4p. – well a surprise here with  the minority 6% being right that there was no change on beer and duty on Cider was actually cut .

Perhaps pinning their hopes on a continuation of the desire for a home owning democracy 71% of our experts expect no change in stamp duty on house purchases while 16% are forecasting an increase and a brave 12% a decrease. – again the experts were spot on with no changes on the rates

Finally our experts are expecting the unexpected with a surprising 72% saying the Chancellor will announce a new tax. Taking the view that the banking levy is a new tax I think we can say our experts are spot on again

Well we wont have long to see how our experts fare – and we will update our blog with the actual changes after the budget. – overall our experts scored a very respectable 7/10

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